Sea level rise is accelerating, Europe’s glaciers are melting at record rates and extreme weather events are causing devastation, warns the World Meteorological Organisation in a preliminary report, presented at the opening of COP27, which opened in Egypt.
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The visible effects of climate change have intensified over the past eight years, the warmest since records began, with sea level rise accelerating, European glaciers melting at record levels and extreme weather events causing severe damage, according to an interim preview of a report by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
The WMO released the document to coincide with the opening of the 27th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change COP27 in the Egyptian resort town of Sharm-El Sheikh.
Experts say that as a result of continued increases in greenhouse gas concentrations and continued heat build-up, the last eight years are on track to be the warmest on record. This year, extreme heat waves, droughts and devastating floods have affected millions of people and caused billions in losses.
The signs and consequences of climate change are increasingly alarming. Since 1993, the rate of sea level rise has doubled. It has risen by almost 10 mm since January 2020 and this year has set a new record high. Ten per cent of the global sea level rise since satellite measurements began – almost 30 years ago – is concentrated in the last two and a half years.
An exceptionally tough year for glaciers
The year 2022 was exceptionally tough for glaciers in the European Alps, as early indications point to an unprecedented melt. As for the Greenland ice sheet, it lost mass for the 26th consecutive year, and for the first time in September, rain rather than snowfall was recorded.
The global average temperature in 2022 is now estimated to be about 1.15 [1.02 to 1.28] °C above the pre-industrial average (1850-1900). As a result of the cooling caused by an infrequent triple La Niña event, 2022 is likely to be “only” the fifth or sixth warmest year on record. However, this does not reverse the long-term trend: it is only a matter of time before the record for the warmest year on record is broken.
Indeed, the warming continues. The 10-year average between 2013 and 2022 is estimated to be 1.14 [1.02 to 1.27] °C above the pre-industrial baseline (1850-1900). For comparison, in its Sixth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates the rise for the period 2011 to 2020 to be 1.09 °C.
Ocean heat reached record levels in 2021, the last year assessed, and it is worth noting the particularly high rate at which waters have warmed over the past 20 years.
“The greater the warming, the worse the consequences. Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are so high that we will barely be able to limit warming to 1.5°C, the least ambitious target of the Paris Agreement,” said Petteri Taalas, secretary-general of the WMO.
“It is already too late for many glaciers and melting will continue for hundreds or even thousands of years, with serious consequences for water security. The rate of sea level rise has doubled in the last 30 years. Although we still measure this increase in millimetres per year, in a century it will represent a rise in water levels of between half a metre and one metre. For low-lying countries and for many millions of coastal dwellers, this is a serious long-term threat,” he said.
“Too often, those who contribute least to climate change suffer most from its consequences, as we have seen with the terrible floods in Pakistan and the deadly and persistent drought in the Horn of Africa. But even well-prepared societies have suffered the ravages of extreme events this year, as evidenced by prolonged heat waves and drought in much of Europe and southern China,” said Professor Taalas.
“Extreme weather events are intensifying, making it more important than ever to ensure that everyone on Earth has access to life-saving early warnings.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres will unveil at COP 27 an Action Plan to achieve the goals of the Early Warning for All initiative over the next five years. Currently, half of the world’s countries lack early warning systems. Mr Guterres has asked the WMO to lead the initiative.
WMO’s annual State of the World Climate Report uses key climate indicators to provide authoritative information on the current state of the climate and reports on extreme events and their consequences. The interim version of the 2022 report contains temperature figures compiled up to the end of September, with the final version to be published next April.